ON THE RELIABILITY OF ESTIMATING TIME TRENDS IN THE TRAVEL TIME OF P WAVES FROM EXPLOSIONS

Abstract

The reliability of determining the time trend of the travel time of longitudinal waves P excited by nuclear explosions at the Nevada Test site and recorded at the BRVK seismic station was assessed based on multiple regression analysis supplemented by the initial sampling method. It is shown that the contribution of the time factor to the variations in the travel times of the P waves according to observations of 248 explosions at the BRVK station is statistically significant, the trend value is 4.31 ± 0.8 ms/year, although its share in 
the travel time variations is less than 0.1%. When the explosions at Yucca Flat and Pahute Mesa were evaluated separately, the trend values were 3.18 ± 1.15 and 4.24 ± 1.23 ms/year, respectively.