SEISMOGEOLOGICAL FEATURES OF EARTHQUAKE PREPARATION IN THE BAIKAL RIFT ZONE

Abstract

For the purposes of medium-term earthquake forecasting, a model of their preparation in the geodynamic conditions of the Baikal rift zone is considered. The model is based on seismogeological features: the presence of a seismic gap, an active fault or fault node, as well as previous pre-shock activity and subsequent calm before the shock. The analysis uses a catalog of earthquakes and a list of active faults. The success of the forecast for the «place» and «energy» parameters is ≈ 70%. The most difficult parameter is «time». The causes and some possible solutions to problems associated with assessing the waiting time of a predicted earthquake, which are caused by a combination of a number of active natural factors, are discussed.