ON THE DETECTION OF A SYSTEMATIC COMPONENT IN THE VARIABILITY OF THE PARAMETERS OF DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS

Abstract

The behavior of complex dynamical systems is highly variable. This fully applies to seismicity and to the manifestation of earthquake precursors. Even in those cases where there are grounds for assuming the presence of precursor effects, they are often extremely difficult to distinguish against the strong background variability of the corresponding systems. Asimple method for detecting of the desired systematic component in the behavior of dynamical systems is suggested and implemented. Examples of seismoionospheric effects are considered using data from the Kokubunji ground-based vertical sounding station (Tokyo, Japan) and the seismicity regime in the vicinity of strong (M7.0+) earthquakes in Kamchatka. It can be assumed that the proposed approach can be effective in many other cases.